| 摘要: |
| [目的]揭示入库径流的演变规律,探讨人类活动对径流演变的影响.[方法]以燕山水库入库径流为研究对象,运用随机水文学和时间序列理论,对燕山水库1954～2001年近50年来的径流演变规律及其驱动力因素进行了全面分析.[结果]燕山水库入库径流的年径流量、汛期径流量均存在不太显著的减少趋势;径流演变呈现出7,11和19年丰枯交替的现象和阶段性特征;3个阶段人类驱动力对径流减少的贡献率依次为0%,3.2%和7.5%.[结论]人库径流和汛期径流减少的趋势受降水的影响逐渐减弱,而人类活动对径流演变的影响在逐步增强;工业、城镇居民大量用水和农业灌溉用水是影响径流减少的最主要驱动力. |
| 关键词: 入库径流 演变规律 降水量 人类驱动力 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:河南省科技攻关项目（0124190108） |
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| Evolution rule and driving influence analysis of Yanshan Reservoir |
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 The paper revealed the inflow evolution rule and human driving force on the evolution of the runoff.【Method】 According to the dates of Yanshan reservoir runoff during the period of 1954-2001,the paper used stochastic hydrology and time series theory.【Result】 Annual runoff and flood season runoff of Yanshan reservoir had the trend of inconspicuous decrease,inflow evolution showed 7,11 and 19-year period change of abundant dry turn taking,inflow evolution had the characteristic of phase,contribution rates of human driving force on inflow decrease in three steps was 0%,3.2% and 7.5% respectively.【Conclusion】 The decrease of reservoir inflow and flood season runoff was lower because of precipitation,while the influence of human activity of inflow evolution was stronger,and the main factors in human driving force were industry,domestic water consumption and agricultural irrigation water consumption. |
| Key words: reservoir inflow evolution rule precipitation human driving force |
