| 摘要: |
| [目的]为了提高电力市场环境下电价预测的精度.[方法]在分析电价形成机理的基础上,研究了四川电网电价时间序列的混沌特性,并利用电价时间序列和负荷时间序列的相关性建立了电价预测模型.[结果]算例分析表明,该模型很好地解决了四川电网日前市场和实时市场的电价预测问题.[结论]模型对系统边际电价和"价格钉"具有良好的预测能力. |
| 关键词: 电价预测 电价时间序列 混沌特性 价格钉 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:TS202.3 TS251.51 |
| 基金项目:陕西省教育厅专项科研基金项目（095JK266） |
|
| Chaotic characteristic analysis of electricity price time seqience our country and its price forecast |
|
LI Bo GAO Xin ZHANG Ying-ying CHANG Zhong-yi HAO Wei GAO Hong-liang ZHAO Ning
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 The study is to improve the price forecast accuracy in electricity market.【Method】 The forecast model is set up by using the relation of price and load based on analyzing the mechanism of the price and the chaotic feature of the price time sequence in Sichuan power grid of our country.【Result】 This model can successfully forecast the price in the real time and the present power market of Sichuan power grid.【Conclusion】 The model can be used to forecast the system marginal price and‘price spike’forecast. |
| Key words: price forecast electricity price time sequence chaotic character price spike |
