| 摘要: |
| 利用渭北旱塬1997～2003年的温度、相对湿度、降雨量和苹果黑星病流行程度等资料，采用逐步回归法分析了影响渭北旱塬苹果黑星病流行的气象因子，求得了最优回归子集，并用前5年资料建立了多元线性回归模型，用该模型对2002和2003年苹果黑星病的流行程度进行了预测。结果表明，4月份和8月份的降雨量、前一年12月份的平均相对湿度及1月份和7月份的平均温度是影响苹果黑星病流行的主要因子。研究建立的回归模型预测准确率高，对渭北旱塬苹果黑星病的防治具有一定指导作用。 |
| 关键词: 渭北旱塬 苹果黑星病 因子分析 流行病预测 |
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| 基金项目:欧盟科技合作项目（ICA4-CT-2001-10001）；西北农林科技大学优秀人才项目（04ZR018） |
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| Prediction of apple scab epidemics in Weibei semi-arid plateau of Shaanxi |
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| Abstract: |
| Factors of apple scab(caused by Venturia inaequalis(Cooke) Wint.) epidemics were studied on the basis of temperature,relative humidity,rainfall and epidemic levels of disease during 1997-2003 via stepwise regression.Prediction model was set up through collecting meteorologic and disease epidemic data in 1997-2001.Long-term prediction of apple scab occurrence in 2002-2003 was carried out respectively.Results showed that the key factors affecting epidemics of apple scab were rainfall in April and August,average daily relative humidity of last December and average daily temperature in January and July.Results indicated that predictive model had highly accurate ratio and could be used to guide the control of apple scab in semi-arid plateau of Weibei in Shaanxi Province. |
| Key words: Weibei semi-arid plateau apple scab factor analysis epidemic prediction |
