| 摘要: |
| 通过对中长期水文预报的研究现状、研究发展特点及存在的主要问题和研究发展方向的评述,指出中长期水文预报应充分考虑水文要素时空变化的非线性和不确定性特点,利用非线性方法,并通过多种方法的耦合来提高预报效果。认为预报应建立在坚实的物理成因基础上,并应进行中长期水文预报要素及其影响因子的系统监测。 |
| 关键词: 中长期水文预报,水文统计,人工神经网络 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P338 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Discussion and prospect on mid-to-long-term hydrological forecasting |
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YANG Xu1 LUAN Ji-hong1 FENG Guo-zhang2
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| Abstract: |
| This paper reviewed the advance in the mid-to-long-term hydrological forecasting,analyzed the characters and major problems in development of the mid-to-long-term hydrological forecasting,and discussed the prospects of the mid-to-long-term hydrological forecasting.It is pointed out that the mid-to-long-term hydrological forecasting should pay attentian to the characteristics of nonlinearity and indetermination of hydrological factors and their variations in time and space,and combined use of nonlinear and any other methods might improve the forecasting result.It is recognized that hydrological forecasting should be based on sound physical cause-and-effect analysis,and mid-to-long-term hydrological forecasting factors and their affecting factors should be monitored systematically. |
| Key words: mid-to-long-term hydrological forecasting,statistics in hydrology,artificial neural networ$ |
