| 摘要: |
| 分析探讨了48年来陕西省秋粮生产的波动特征，对全省和各地（市）单产序列的分析表明：①近48年来，陕西省秋粮单产的增产年多于减产年，其持续时间与增产幅度均大于减产年的持续时间和幅度；②各地（市）的增减产年频率均呈正态分布，但发展不平衡，按累积频率曲线可分为稳定型、不稳定型和中间型；③增向转移概率大于减向转移概率，其中增转增的概率为最大，增转减为最小；④陕西省秋粮生产的发展经历了低产不稳定缓慢发展——持续稳定增产——高产异常波动3个阶段；⑤全省增减产的历史演变有较明显的9年周期波动特征，但各地（市）主要波动周期不尽相同。 |
| 关键词: 演变特征，波动周期，频数分布 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:S162 |
| 基金项目:陕西省科技攻关资助项目 |
|
| Characteristics of Fall Crop Yield Variations in Shaanxi |
|
Li Dengke
|
| Abstract: |
| The characteristics of fall crop production variations in Shaanxi Province
were analysed. The analysis of the unit yield sequence showed①during the last 48
years, the years with yield increase were much more than the years with yield decrease,
and the duration and margin of yield increase years were also greater than those of the
yield decrease ones;②the frequency of the yield decrease/increase years was in a normal
distribution. According to the fluctuation margin, the accu-mulated frequency curves
could be classified into three types of the stable, unstable and intermidiate;③the calculation of transfer probability (TP) of years with yield increase/decrease showed that TP
in increase years was much bigger than TP in decrease years with TP maximum from increase to increase and Tp minimum from increase to decrease;④the development of fall
crop production in Shaanxi Province experienced low yield slow development, stable development and high yield development with abnormal fluctuation stages;⑤as for the
whole province, there was a periodic fluctuation of increase/decrease in yield about every
nine years, but the variation of the main fluctuation period in different regions were different. |
| Key words: variation characteristics,frequency distribution,fluctuation period |
