| 摘要: |
| 简介了门限自回归（ＴＡＲ）模型的概念和自激励门限自回归（ＳＥＴＡＲ）模型的一般形式与建模方法，建立了泾河、北洛河和渭河三河流主要灌溉取水断面月平均流量的ＳＥ－ＴＡＲ模型，将模型用于预报枯水期河川径流，精度与合格率均满足水文预报规范要求。 |
| 关键词: 时间序列分析,枯水径流预报,自激励门限自回归模型 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号:P338.3 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Application of Self-Excited Threshold Autoregressive Model to Low Flow Forecast |
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Feng Guozhang Wang Shuangyin Wang Xuebin
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| Abstract: |
| The concept of threshold autoregressive (TAR) model and the general form and modeling method of self-excited autogressive (SETAR) model are briefly introduced. The SETAR models of monthly flows for three major sites of irrigation water supply on the three rivers, Jing, North Lou and Wei,are formulated respectively. The models are used to forecast stream flows in low flow period of the three sites, and show relatively high accuracy and qualified ratio which satisfy the nation's criterion of hydrologic forecast. |
| Key words: time series analysis, low flow forecast, self-excited threshold autoregrassive model, |
