| 摘要: |
| 本文采用时间序列分析方法研究陕西省生猪生产周期波动规律,估计了周期波动的频率与强度,讨论了波动发生的根源和不同猪群,不同地区之间波动的联系。在分析讨论的基础上,建立了生产发展预测公式,提出了“适宜增长速度”概念,并就减缓生猪生产波动,促进稳定发展的对策进行了探讨。 |
| 关键词: 猪,生产周期,周期变化,规律,预测 |
| DOI： |
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| A Study on Periodic Fluctuating Regular Patterns of Swine Production in Shaanxi Province |
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Guo Rongjun Zhang Ruyi Wang Min Dang Shengli Qing Maiyu
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| Abstract: |
| In the paper, the periodic fluctuating regular pattern of swine production of Shaanxi was studied and the frequencies and intensity of the periodic fluctuation were estimated using time-order-analysis method. The basic relations and causes of the fluctuation in different pig groups and different regions were discussed according to the present production situation. Based on the analysis and discussion, the prediction formulas of swin productive development were established, and the suitable slow speed was suggested. Also, the counter^ measures of moderating swine productive fluctuation and promoting constant development were discussed. |
| Key words: hogs, productive cycle, periodic variation, laws, prediction |
