| 摘要: |
| 本文运用系统工程、控制论和耗散结构等理论,借助系统动力学(SD)仿真技术,且把灰色系统预测模型引入SD模型中,来协同对陕西咸阳市杨陵区农村经济的发展进行探索性研究。本文通过仿真试验和采用模糊综合评审原理进行多方案比较辩识,确立了特定区域农村发展的战略方针,发展模式和到本世纪末不同时段产业结构调整方案及其他对策措施。此外,结合区域发展研究,文中还初步提出和探讨了“经济决策报偿效应”理论。 |
| 关键词: 区域农村经济,系统动力学(SD),仿真技术,发展模式,产业结构,经济决策报偿效应 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
|
| RESEARCH ON SYSTEM SIMULATION OF REGIONAL RURAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT |
|
Mao Zhifeng
|
| Abstract: |
| This paper discusses the development of rural economy in Yangling District of Xianyang Municipality, Shaanxi province using theories including systems engineering, cybernetics and dissipation structures in combination with systematic dynamic ( SD ) simulation technique and introduces the predicting model of grey system theory into SD model.Through simulation experiment and by adopting fuzzy integrated evaluation theory, the comparative identification among the multiple programs is carried out so as to establish the strategical policy, developing pattern and ad justing program of industry structure at each stage for 2000 as well as other cquntermeasures in the special rural area.In addition, according to the research of regional economic development, the theory of "the effect of recompense in economic decision" is also presented and discussed preliminarily in this paper. |
| Key words: regional rural economy,systematic dynamic ( SD ),simulation thchnique,developing pattern,industry structure, The effect of recompe nse in economic decision, |
